The impact of sea level rise on coastal properties depends critically on the human response to the threat, which in turn depends on several factors, including the immediacy of the risk, the magnitude of property value at risk, options for adapting to the threat and the cost of those options, and in some cases, land-use or regulatory restrictions that apply to the property. This model estimates the response to and economic impacts of sea level rise on coastal properties using a spatially comprehensive Geographic Information System based modeling approach that considers each of the aforementioned factors. The model can be used for a number of purposes, including the development of: 1) national-level estimates of the benefits of reducing sea level rise through the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; and 2) local-level results assessing management actions that could facilitate adaptation to sea-level rise risks.
The National Coastal Property Model has been evaluated and reviewed in several peer-reviewed publications, including the following:
1) Neumann, J.E., Hudgens, D.E., Herter, J. and Martinich, J. (2010) Assessing Sea-Level Rise Impacts: A GIS-Based Framework and Application to Coastal New Jersey, Coastal Management, 38: 4, 433-455.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920753.2010.496105 , 2) Neumann, J.E., Hudgens, D.E., Herter, J. and Martinich, J. (2010) The economics of adaptation along developed coastline, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2: 1, 89-98.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.90/abstract , 3) Martinich, J., Neumann, J., Ludwig, L., Jantarasami, L. (2012) Risks of Sea Level Rise to Disadvantaged Communities in the United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, in press.